03 Jul 2024
Extreme Weather Threatens Grain Production in Major Growing Regions from the Black Sea to the US Midwest.
Record temperatures in the world’s major growing regions have delayed planting and harmed grain production.
The forecasted drought in the Black Sea region is likely to damage the production of sunflower and corn in this significant agricultural area. At the same time, heavy rains in the United States, following near-record temperatures, threaten to impact crops, reducing global supplies and driving up prices.
“The weather forecast for the Black Sea region is a major warning sign,” said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at US-based Maxar. With expected dryness and below-normal rainfall for July and August, the main corn and sunflower crops in the region are likely to suffer.
Record temperatures in the world’s major growing regions have delayed planting and harmed developing crops as the impact of climate change intensifies. Vast areas of farmland in Russia, China, India, and the United States are experiencing extremely hot conditions and below-normal rainfall.
Global wheat prices surged to a ten-month high in May after adverse weather reduced crop yields in Russia, the largest exporter.
Hot weather in southern Russia will affect crops due to a lack of soil moisture, with lower precipitation and heat also expected in the Urals, Western Siberia, and Transbaikalia, according to a forecast from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center.
Southern and eastern Ukraine have also experienced hot and dry weather, with precipitation between May 1 and June 10 being only 20-50% of normal, according to the state weather forecast. Drought is damaging the development of winter and spring crops in parts of the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions.
“May in Ukraine ended up being one of the driest in the past 30 years,” state meteorologists said. “In the northern regions, particularly in Zhytomyr, hail has caused damage to spring crops such as corn, soybeans, and sunflowers.”
In the United States, one of the top food exporters, intense heat has gripped parts of the East Coast, while excessive rainfall in the main Midwest growing region and forecasts for more wet weather have raised fears of flooding.
- “In the Midwest, the focus is shifting from heat to excessive rainfall, which could result in flooding in corn and soybean producing areas, especially in the Upper Midwest,” Hyde said.
In Asia, abundant rains are expected to alleviate severe drought in parts of China, a major soybean buyer. Meanwhile, rains during India’s monsoon season, which are a fifth below normal, are expected to recover, boosting agriculture in the world’s largest rice exporter and leading edible oil importer.
